Stake Calculator
Size your bets using the Kelly criterion. Enter your bankroll, odds, and model probability to get a recommended stake. Fractional Kelly and max cap reduce variance.
Inputs
Implied probability51.3%
EV%7.25%
Raw Kelly7.63%
Adjusted Kelly3.82%
Recommended stake$100.00
Potential payout$195.00
Potential profit$95.00
How it works
The Kelly criterion tells you what fraction of your bankroll to bet when you have an edge. The formula compares your model probability to the implied probability from the odds. If your model says the true win chance is higher than what the odds imply, you have positive expected value. Raw Kelly is the optimal fraction that maximizes long-term growth, but it can be aggressive. Using a fractional Kelly (e.g. half-Kelly) and a max stake cap reduces variance and protects your bankroll from overexposure on any single bet.